The economic growth in Poland in 2017 will amount to 4.2 percent. GDP, and in 2018, 3.8 percent. GDP – results from the autumn economic forecasts of the European Commission presented today. This is much better than Brussels predicted in spring.
In May, the Commission expected that Poland’s GDP would go up this year by 3.5 percent, and next year by 3.2 percent.
The main factors supporting growth in our country are – according to the Commission – faster wage growth and private consumption.
– Growth will be driven by domestic demand with individual consumption supported by favorable trends in the labor market and a record high level of consumer confidence – it was written in the EC report.
Analysts from Brussels expect a gradual improvement in investments, mainly due to greater use of EU funds.
According to the forecast, in 2017, Poland’s public debt will amount to 53.2 percent. GDP, to fall to 53 percent in 2018 In turn, the deficit of the general government sector is to amount to 1.7%. GDP in both the current and next year.
This result is explained by higher tax revenues from direct and indirect taxes (eg VAT). In the case of the latter, the greater impacts are to result from the improvement of macroeconomic foundations, while in the case of direct taxes the better collection is to be the result of the improvement of the situation on the labor market.
At the same time, the forecasts envisage an increase in expenditures in the public finance sector, mainly due to a large increase in the number of investments and a decrease in the retirement age.
The structural deficit, i.e. excluding cyclical trends, is expected to drop to 2 percent. GDP in 2017 from 2.25%. GDP in 2016. In 2018, however, it is to increase again to 2.25%. GDP.
The Commission forecasts a further decline in unemployment – according to the EU methodology, it is expected to reach 5% this year. and fall in the future to 4.2 percent. The average for the entire EU should amount to 7.8 and 7.3 percent respectively.
The EC analysis shows that in the first part of 2017 Poland experienced a strong increase in consumption and accumulation of inventories, however, the investment activity was weak. The main factor influencing the growth was private consumption resulting from constant increase in wages and employment. This is also how it will remain in the coming months. The record high confidence of consumers in the near future also favors a good situation.
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