It is not the Poles living in Great Britain who will lose the most on Brexit, although it is their talk about them the most. Polish small and medium-sized enterprises that are the salt of our economy will suffer the most.
The slowdown in British GDP, the reduction of consumer spending, the increase in the bankruptcy of local businesses and the weakening of the pound will seriously make life difficult for Polish exporters. Poland’s food and electronics producers should be prepared for the largest losses.
When, almost 1.5 years ago, the British decided to leave the European Union, the first question arose, of 850,000. Poles living in the UK.
Later, Deputy Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki tried to impose rhetoric of benefits that Poland may gain as a result of Brexit: large financial corporations that will flee London – today the financial center of Europe – may come to us, Poland will only benefit.
Today, however, it turns out that there is one more group that will certainly experience the effects of Brexit – these are small and medium enterprises that are the basis of the Polish economy. Those that export to the UK may have a problem.
UK economic growth is slowing down now. Still in 2015, GDP grew at a rate of 2.2 percent, a year later it slowed to 1.8 percent, and estimates indicate that 2017 and 2018 will be even weaker. According to Allianz’s forecasts, this year GDP will increase by 1.4 percent, and in the future only by 1 percent.
This means that British companies will get worse and worse. And they will be less reliable partners for Polish entrepreneurs. In the second place, the loss will be generated by RTV producers – 120 million euros and companies from the furniture and wood processing industries – 115 million euros. The automotive industry has potential losses of 106 million euros, the chemical sector – 104 million euros, machines and parts – 104 million euros, while household appliances and electrical goods – 82 million euros.
Such losses will affect Polish companies in the most likely scenario today – Great Britain and the EU conclude a trade agreement, under which part of the goods is subjected to a weighted average tariff of 2-3%, and service costs increase by an average of 10%.Uncertainty scares
One trade deal with the EU and the case settled? Unfortunately, it will not be that easy. Experts estimate that before the actual exit of Great Britain from the European Union takes place, there must be as many as 20,000 on the changed Isles. regulations. Which way will the new regulations go? This is not yet known and this is the biggest threat, because uncertainty is the biggest enemy for business.
This is clearly visible in the moods of entrepreneurs in Poland, especially those of small and medium-sized enterprises. Bibby MSP Index research shows that every fourth company in the SME sector is afraid of Brexit’s effects, as much as 40 percent. he feels insecure about changes in trade policy throughout the Union. Although nothing has happened yet, 18 percent of the surveyed companies has already encountered a decline in interest in imports from Poland, and 16%. has a problem with finding contractors abroad.
Why is this happening? Because the British are already feeling the effects of the upcoming Brexit and are cutting expenses. This year, the retail industry has seen the biggest fall in seven years, because the weakening of the pound means that imported goods are becoming more and more expensive, and therefore less willingly bought. Exporters sending their goods to the islands today have a more difficult task.